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Tentative Schedule

Lec. No. Date Topic and Readings Reading Questions Extra Presenter
1 Wed 9/1 Introduction
Slides Yiling
Mon 9/6 Labor Day - Holiday
2 Wed 9/8 Information Theory, Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Chapter 2 (2.1-2.8)
Elements of Information Theory, T.M. Cover and J.A. Thomas (2005)
Slides, Notes Yiling
3 Mon 9/13 Kelly Criterion
Chapter 6 (6.1-6.3) and Chapter 16 (16.1-16.4)
Elements of Information Theory, T.M. Cover and J.A. Thomas (2005)
4 Wed 9/15 Game Theory Review
Chapter 3, Chapter 5 (5.1).
Multiagent Systems, Y. Shoham and K. Leyton-Brown (2009).
Slides Yiling
5 Mon 9/20 Game Theory Review
Chapter 5 (5.2), Chapter 6 (p.141 -147, p. 156-166).
Multiagent Systems, Y. Shoham and K. Leyton-Brown (2009).
Slides Yiling
6 Wed 9/22 Proper Scoring Rules
Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation, T Gneiting and A Raftery, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 2007. (You can skip sections 4 and 5.)
Eliciting Properties of Probability Distributions, N. Lambert, D.M. Pennock and Y. Shoham, ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2008. (You can skip section 6.)
How do proper scoring rules relate to convex functions? Selten'98, HB'71, Salvage'71, WM'68, McCarthy'56 Yiling
7 Mon 9/27 Peer Prediction - The Original Mechanism
Eliciting Honest Feedback: The Peer-Prediction Method, N. Miller, P. Resnick, and R. Zeckhauser, Management Science, 51(9): 1359-1373, 2005.
Slides, SRE'08, JF'06 Thomas Steinke and David Rezza Baqaee
8 Wed 9/29 Peer Prediction - Some Improvement
Mechanisms for Making Crowds Truthful. R. Jurca and B. Faltings. Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research, 34: 209-253, 2009.
Slides, JF'07, JF'08,
Sergiy Nesterko and Andrew Mao
9 Mon 10/4 Truthful Surveys
Truthful Surveys, N. Lambert and Y. Shoham, Workshop on Internet and Network Economics, 2009
Slides, Notes, GRP'09, LS'09 DW'08 Victor Shnayder and Mike Ruberry
10 Wed 10/6 Bayesian Truth Serum
 A Bayesian Truth Serum for Subjective Data, D. Prelec, Science, 306 (5695): 462-466, 2004.
An Algorithm That Finds Truth Even If Most People Are Wrong, D. Prelec and H.S. Seung, 2010.


Drazen Prelec
Mon 10/11 Columbus Day - Holiday
11 Wed 10/13 Empirical Performance of Prediction Markets
The Promise of Prediction Markets,
K.J. Arrow et. al., Science, 320, p.877, May 16 2008.
Prediction Markets, J. Wolfers and E. Zitzewitz, The Journal of Economic Perspectives 18(2), 2004.
Prediction Without Markets, S. Goel, D.M. Reeves, D.J. Watts, and D.M. Pennock
ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2010.
Slides, BFNR'01, CP'02, CFH'03, CWZ'08, OS'10 Thomas Steinke and David Rezza Baqaee
12 Mon 10/18 Market Scoring Rules
Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation, R. Hanson, Journal of Prediction Markets, 1(1):3-15, 2007.
David Pennock's blog on how to implement market scoring rules as a market maker.
Slides, Notes, Hanson'03, CP'07, OPRS'10 Victor Shnayder and Mike Ruberry
13 Wed 10/20 Incentives in Prediction Markets
Composition of Markets with Conflicting Incentives
S. Dimitrov and R. Sami, ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2010.
Slides, CDHRPHFG'09, SCG'09, OS'10b, IGM'09, Ostrovsky'09 Mikkel Plagborg-Moller and Alex Peysakhovich
14 Mon 10/25 Combinatorial Prediction Market
 Combinatorial Betting,
Y. Chen, L. Fortnow, E. Nikolova, and D.M. Pennock
ACM SIGecom Exchanges, Vol. 7, No. 1, December 2007.
Pricing Combinatorial Markets for Tournaments,
Y. Chen, S. Goel, and D.M. Pennock
The 40th ACM Symposium on Theory of Computing (STOC), Victoria (BC), Canada, May 2008.
Slides, CFLPW'08, GP'09, CFNP'07 Rick Goldstein and John Lai
15 Wed 10/27 Online Learning
Chapter 14, Online Algorithms: The State of the Art, Springer, 1998.

Slides, LW'92

16 Mon 11/1 Decision-Theoretic Perspective of Online Learning
A Decision-Theoretic Generalization of On-Line Learning and an Application to Boosting, Y. Freund and R.E. Schapire, journal of computer and system sciences 55, 119-139, 1997.
Slides, AWY'08, CFHHSW'97 Sachin Gupta and Nitish Lakhanpal
17 Wed 11/3 Follow the Regularized Leader
Efficient Algorithms for Online Decision Problems, A. Kalaia and S. Vempala, Journal of Computer and System Sciences 71: 291 – 307, 2005.
A Survey: The Convex Optimization Approach to Regret Minimization, E. Hazan, 2009.
Slides, Kalai's Notes, Rahklin's lecture notes on online learning Alice Gao and Sergiy Nesterko
18 Mon 11/8 Market & Learning
A New Understanding of Prediction Markets Via No-Regret Learning,
Y. Chen and J.W. Vaughan, ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2010.
Slides Wei Pan and Dylan Lake
19 Wed 11/10 Incentive-Compatible Machine Learning
 Incentive Compatible Regression Learning, O. Dekel, F. Fischer, and A. D. Procaccia. Journal of Computer and System Sciences, 76(8):759–777, 2010. 
A'08 Ariel Procaccia and Felix Fischer
20 Mon 11/15 Darpa Network Challenge
Time Critical Social Mobilization: The DARPA Network Challenge Winning Strategy, G. Pickard, I. Rahwan, W. Pan, M. Cebrian, R. Crane, A. Madan, and A. Pentland, 2010.
Slides,CNN News, DARPA Project Report Karim Atiyeh and Yinan Zhu
21 Wed 11/17 Crowdsourcing -1
Crowdsourcing and All-Pay Auctions, D. DiPalantino and Milan Vojnovic, ACM Conference on Electronic Commerce, 2010.
Active Learning and Crowd-Sourcing for Machine Translation, Ambati, V., Vogel, S. and Carbonell, J., Proceedings of LREC, 2010.
Slides,AD'08, JP'10 Pramod Thammaiah and Scott Brinker
22 Mon 11/22

Crowdsourcing -2
K.J. Boudreau, N. Lacetera, and K.R. Lakhani, 2010. (Paper will be distributed by email.)

Boudreau and Lakhani, 2010. (Paper will be distributed by email.)

Marginality and Problem Solving Effectiveness in Broadcast Search, L.B. Jeppesen and K. R. Lakhani, Organization Science (forthcoming) 2009.

Karim Lakhani
Wed 11/24 Thanksgiving Holiday
23 Mon 11/29 The Wealth of Data
Toward Community Sensing, A. Krause, E. Horvitz, A. Kansal, and F. Zhao, International Conference on Information Processing in Sensor Networks, 2008.
Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data, J. Ginsberg, M.H. Mohebbi, R.S. Patel, L. Brammer, M.S. Smolinski and L. Brilliant, Nature, 2009.
HK'10 Jerry Kung and Kevin Lee
24 Wed 12/1 Class Discussion